Economic forecast: 2026 growth stronger than previously expected
Bern, 17.09.2026 — The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles is raising its forecast for economic growth in Switzerland. For 2026, it now expects growth of 1.7% (June forecast: 0.9%), while the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 1.6% [1]. Swiss GDP has recently grown strongly. However, the Iran conflict, high energy prices and continuing uncertainty over trade policy pose significant risks to the economic outlook.
In the second quarter of 2026, GDP adjusted for sporting events grew by an exceptionally strong 1.5%. In line with improved sentiment indicators, this growth was broad-based across both industries and demand components. Even so, the increase is likely to overstate underlying economic momentum: almost half of it was attributable to the highly volatile value added of the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, accompanied by a sharp rise in exports. The Expert Group therefore anticipates a degree of correction in the second half of the year.
Despite the expected correction, the economy remains broadly on track for recovery. Moreover, the strong first half of the year has prompted a marked upward revision to the growth forecast. The Expert Group now expects GDP adjusted for sporting events to grow by 1.7% in 2026 (June forecast: 0.9%). In particular, foreign trade is expected to contribute more strongly to this year's growth than was anticipated in June. This reflects the robust performance seen so far and a somewhat more favourable global economic environment. The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc is also supporting the exchange-rate-sensitive parts of the export sector.
As before, a moderate expansion in domestic demand is also expected. Rising utilisation of production capacity is supporting investment activity, and private consumption should continue to grow moderately. Despite the recent uptick, inflation has remained at moderate levels, and futures markets point to falling oil prices over the coming months. On this basis, the Expert Group's forecast for average annual inflation in both 2026 and 2027 remains unchanged at 0.6%.
A further pickup in global demand is expected for 2027. The rest of Europe, notably Germany, is expected to continue recovering from the period of weakness seen in recent years, which will also benefit the Swiss economy. The forecast for growth in GDP adjusted for sporting events remains unchanged at 1.6%.
This economic development is also reflected in the labour market, with a gradual decline in unemployment numbers expected. The average annual unemployment rate is expected to stand at 3.1% in 2026, edging down to 3.0% in 2027 (forecast unchanged).
Economic risks
A more favourable economic performance than forecast is also possible, for example if GDP growth in the second half of the year is stronger than currently assumed. In addition, a stronger economic recovery could materialise internationally and, in turn, in Switzerland. More favourable labour market developments could then further strengthen domestic demand.
Nonetheless, the conflict in the Middle East remains a major risk to the global economic outlook. Sustained high oil prices could place a significant burden on the global economy, and would also push inflation higher in Switzerland. Given low storage levels in Europe, further price increases are also possible for natural gas. Conversely, a rapid easing of the geopolitical situation could relieve pressure on energy markets.
This forecast is based on the technical assumption that US import tariffs remain broadly at their current levels. However, uncertainty persists, and further adjustments to US tariff policy, as well as additional trade-policy measures, cannot be ruled out [2].
Further risks to the economic outlook stem from possible corrections in financial markets and from global debt, given that financing costs have risen internationally. Should any of these risks materialise, upward pressure on the Swiss franc would be expected.
[1] This forecast was finalised on 8 September. Further information can be found in the economic forecast section of ‘Konjunkturtendenzen’ for autumn 2026 (available in German) and at www.seco.admin.ch/economic-forecasts.
[2] In particular, the outcome of the investigation initiated by the United States on 11 March 2026 into a number of countries, including Switzerland, in connection with alleged excess capacity in industrial production and its causes, is not yet known; see https://www.seco.admin.ch/en/swiss-us-trade-relations.